.BondLib.SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Scenario_5

More accessible non-recoverable natural resources, pollution control, land yield enhancement, and erosion protection

Information

This is Scenario #5 of the WORLD3 model. This scenario starts out with the same assumptions as Scenario #4. Improvements in land yield enhancement have allowed more people to be fed a little while longer. However, the effort is not sustainable. The agricultural land loses its fertility rather quickly, and in the end, the collapse arrives even earlier than in Scenario #4. Humanity spends all of its money and more in trying to grow more food at all cost. This leads to rampant hyperinflation.

In this new scenario, it is thus postulated to spend more money earlier on for the protection of the arable land against erosion.

References:

  1. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W.W. Behrens III (1972), Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Books, New York, 205p.
  2. Meadows, D.L., W.W. Behrens III, D.M., Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers, and E.K.O. Zahn (1974), Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, 637p.
  3. Meadows, D.H., D.L. Meadows, and J. Randers (1992), Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 300p.
  4. Meadows, D.H., J. Randers, and D.L. Meadows (2004), Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 368p.

In order to accomplish this change, you need to reset another of the switching times in the model:

parameter Real t_land_life_time(unit="yr") = 2002 "Land life time";.

Simulate the model from 1900 until 2100, and display the same variables as in the book Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update at page 215:

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